Assessed calculation for the period 2006-2014 years were made by two scenarios – optimistic and pessimistic. Scenarios differ in dynamics of HIV/AIDS spreading at risk groups, preventive measures efficiency of prevention of mother-to-child transmission, rate of transfer to AIDS stage, access level to ARV treatment.
According to the study forecast in any way the amount of HIV-positive people living in Ukraine will increase in 4-6% per year till 2009 year. After 2010, HIV/AIDS epidemic may develop in two ways depending on government efforts: either the amount of HIV-infected people in Ukraine will gradually reduce every year - to 480 000 (optimistic scenario), or it will increase and get over 741 000 cases in 2014, including 31 000 HIV infected children (pessimistic scenario). Almost 16 000 HIV-positive children will have AIDS. The total amount of AIDS cases will permanently rise and exceed 164 000 people by 2014 year.
According to the pessimistic scenario in 2014 the amount of AIDS-caused deaths will be 50,6 thousands (including 928 children). Totally according to this scenario during 2007-2014 years the amount of AIDS-caused deaths will increase in 1,7 times.
In the context of HIV/AIDS epidemic spreading children obviously are the most vulnerable social group. The dynamic of this group leaves behind grown-up population according to the all available rates. For example, the amount of people with AIDS diagnosis will increase in 1,5 times from 2007 to 2014 according to the pessimistic scenario, at the same time the amount of children with AIDS will increase in 2,6 times. By 2014 year the amount of HIV-positive pregnant women will rise in 1,6 times – up to 15 696 persons. The amount of children that may lose one of the parents due to AIDS epidemic will be twice as much. The amount of full orphans will increase in 3,7 times.
Rapid HIV/AIDS epidemic spread leads to the abrupt increasing of the national budget expenses. Predictive estimation pointed at the increasing twice of the budget expenses for the preventive measures and HIV/AIDS treatment during 2007-2014 years (at the same time HIV treatment comes to 50%). Overall, during this period ratio of preventive measures and HIV/ AIDS treatment expenses to the total costs for health protection as the part of consolidated budget will increase from 15,0% to 21,8%.
Budget losses caused by HIV/AIDS epidemic are also impressive. According to the pessimistic scenario total budget losses will increase in 2,5 times and exceed 11 billions UAH. during 2007-2014 years – there are total losses of the national budget and social foundation budget losses.
Total losses of the national budget will double during 2007-2014 years– up to 8 billions. They include additional expenses and losses of the national budget. Additional expenses will rise twice and get over 6 billions UAH – there are public health expenses for HIV/AIDS preventive measures and treatment, government help to handicapped children, families with poor income, families with children (single mothers, guardians). Researchers forecast four times over budget losses – by 2014 it would be 1,7 billions UAH. This figure includes losses of income of individuals’ tax and profits tax.
Total losses of social foundations’ budgets during 2007-2014 years will increase in 2,8 times and it will be 3,4 billions UAH. These losses include additional expenses and losses of social foundations. Additional losses for temporary disability, invalidity, loss of households, etc will increase in 2,5 times and get over 9 billions UAH. Income losses of social foundations (because of outstandings to these foundations) will increase in 3,3 times up to 1,4 billions UAH.
According to the Ukrainian AIDS Center’ data on 01.01.2007 116 939 HIV-positive people are officially registered in Ukraine, including 16 070 children; among them 21 682 adults and 696 children have AIDS diagnosis, and 11 653 adults and 248 children died of AIDS.